Critical Thinking Instructor: K. Sherlock

CAUSAL ANALYSIS

EXAMINE A PROBLEM'S UNDERLYING CAUSES BY ONE OR MORE OF THE FOLLOWING METHODS.
LEVEL OF CAUSATION	PRECIPITATING CAUSES Trace backward from the problem to its root cause by creating a chain of precipitating causes (i.e., domino effect); examine the problem as the cumulative effect of conditions which are, themselves, effects of other conditions.	ROOT CAUSE Single out the most basic and fundamental cause of the problem as its root; the conclusion of a chain of precipitating causes is, generally, the root cause.
DEGREE OF APPARENCY	SUPERFICIAL CAUSE Begin with an examination of the most immediately apparent causes; dig beneath the surface of these causes to suggest more complex factors.	HIDDEN CAUSE Begin with superficial causes in order to uncover more hidden and complex underlying causes that, once addressed in their complexity, might lead to a more effective solution.
CONTRIBUTORY NATURE	PRIMARY CAUSE Identify the most direct instigator of the problem as primary; problem may be the result of a single cause or the result of several causes that contribute cooperatively.	SECONDARY CAUSE Indirect sources of the problem are secondary causes; a causal chain leading from secondary causes to primary may be analyzed and illustrated in order to support an argument for a specific course of action (i.e., a claim of policy or solution).

STRATEGIES FOR CAUSAL ANALYSIS

A. WHY?

This question is the cornerstone to causal analysis, since answering "Why does the problem exist?" is the most fundamental hurdle. The question, however, can be applied to more than the problem. For example: Why is your solution the best response to the problem?

If you are experiencing difficulties in pinning down a main cause, then a little introspection is in order; ask yourself why you intuitively believe your solution is going to be the best approach? What main cause does it seem to address? That main cause, then, is the one you will wish to identify as the most important for your perspective on the problem.

You might also wish to ask yourself, why OTHER solutions are not up to the task of solving the problem. Why do they fail where yours will succeed? What aspects to the problem do the other solutions neglect to consider? More importantly, what main causes of the problem do these other solutions avoid addressing or address inadequately?

B. WHY, OH WHY, OH WHY?!

Remember when, as a four-year-old, you pestered your parent or your older sibling with the continual question, "Why?" ("Clean your room." "Why?" "Because it's important." "Why?" "Because it should look neat and clean. "Why?" "Because I said so." "Why?" And so on.) The same strategy can well be applied to your own examination of your problem for the sake of tailoring your solution. Take, for example, a proposal that aims to address issues of minority hiring. The following series of "why" responses might take one to the appropriate level of causation that merits a solution.

Q. Why does the business for whom I work not have a stronger minority hiring policy?

A. Because no one has ever seriously taken up the cause of minority hiring in the Human Resources Department.

Q. Why?

A. Because there always seem to be minority candidates that put in applications for the jobs, whether or not they are actually hired.

Q. But why, then, are there so few positions in my company filled by minorities?

A. Perhaps they do apply as minority candidates, but their ethnic or racial profiles are not readily identifiable.

Q. Why not?

A. Because, not everyone has the stereotypical features we associate with certain minorities.

Q. So, why, then, do I feel like there are few positions filled by minority candidates?

A. Because there is no information available to reassure me otherwise.

Q. Why?

A. Because Human Resources does not post that information.

Q. Why?

A. Because this company does not make a big deal about it.

Q. Why?

A. Because problems have never arisen before.

Q. Why?

A. Maybe we're just lucky.

Q. Why?

A. Because other companies have been compelled to reevaluate their hiring policies, and we have not.

Q. Why?

A. Because complaints and legal suits have been raised from individuals who have felt cheated out of jobs and promotions.

Clearly, this technique is intended to be an invention strategy that takes the form of a dialogue with yourself. As such, it should allow for a degree of "free association," permitting your mind to wander over the topic and raise "why" questions in whatever manner seems fitting.

What use, then, did the above causal chain serve? If you were going to propose a different minority hiring policy, where along the chain of answers would you likely stop to apply a solution? Why did this causal chain become "tired out" by the end? Answers to these questions hold clues to guiding your own analytical process. Look for places within your causal chains where feasible approaches and responses can be made, and where effective junctures can be highlighted. Perhaps the fact that NO minority hiring information is made publicly available to employees is an important oversight that might otherwise reassure employees of the company's otherwise airtight hiring practices. This is not to say that assuring a nondiscriminatory attitude in society is not a more important objective, but is it feasible given your energies and local resources? No. Perhaps a simple monthly newsletter addressing issues of minority hiring, equal opportunity, affirmative action and civil liberties might solve the problem in a low-cost and elegant way at a place of employment that already cares about the cause of social justice but does so in its own special way.

Keep in mind, too, that going any farther along the chain would take you in directions unproductive for causal analysis, but potentially useful as further background information. In the above example, more discussion of the roots of prejudice and the legal precedence for employer discrimination would create a fascinating backdrop of attitudes to define the current climate in which the problem exists, but it would not avail itself as a means to identifying a main cause that you could feasibly solve.

C. THE INTERPLAY OF CAUSAL ASPECTS

There are a couple of ways of taking a complex problem and applying the "Why" Factor to it.

1. Create a matrix of questions about the problem that is guided by the question "why" but is open to other questions as well. For example, in attempting to get to the bottom of the problem with a shortage of income restricted housing in the North Park area, let's consider some the of the factors that define the problem and conceptualize in response to who, what, when, where, and how; then, let's apply the "why" question to these:

		WHY is this a problem? Because	WHY is this a problem? Because
WHO?	North Park Community Redevelopment Council	the Council's mission is to revitalize North Park, plans which might excluded lower income residents.
WHAT?	the building of new apartments and condominiums	Condominiums are beyond the financial reach of poorer people without assistance programs, and new apartment buildings do not keep rental costs low enough to motivate lower income people to apply for such housing
WHEN?	within the last five years	the cost of housing in San Diego has increased 150%
WHERE?	south of El Cajon Boulevard and west of 40th Street	the development of the I-15 Freeway has created a divide that developers have used to turn the tide of poverty in North Park
HOW?	with the funding of developers and the input of citizens	developers have a financial, not social, interest in the success of redevelopment, while concerned citizens are usually those citizens that see poor people, not poverty, itself, as the unwanted element

As you can see, this method is purely exploratory. The important element to the successful exploration of the causes is to continue to ask why in response to the more hidden underlying causes you uncover, but even more essential is that you see how some of your responses work together cooperatively. In effect, this is a technique that lends itself to brainstorming.

2. Change the parameters of your matrix to identify the following: the facts of the problem (the outward indicators of the problem and its severity); the agent involved (who is directly or indirectly responsible for the problem); the agency (what are the means by which the problem is created); the location (what settings are related to the nature of the problem; motives (what influences are behind the problem). With the same brainstorming approach as the above mentioned strategy, try to examine how your perspectives on the problem according to these parameters relate to one another and paint a picture of the problem's potentially main cause that might be worthy of a solution.

A more effective schema for visualizing the relationships between these perspectives is a five-point diagram wherein lines (i.e., connections) can be drawn between the important related points.

	FACTS
MOTIVES		AGENT
LOCATION		AGENCY

D. THE CAUSAL ANALYSIS ESSAY

The culmination of these explorations is the Causal Analysis Essay, wherein you rhetorically arrange, define, argue and dispute a number of different causes-all for the purpose of focussing on one or two causes that you designate as the main ones deserving of your solution. Remember, if you are experiencing difficulty in this, even after these exploratory exercises, begin with your solution and work backward from it. Why did you choose this solution intuitively? What main cause to the problem does it seem to address? Single out that as your main cause, and lead up to an advanced discussion of it by way of an examination and dismissal of other causes being primary.